By Holden Baird | Observer Contributor
You may have seen coverage of the recent meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which has since drawn intense reactions from both sides of the political aisle. The controversial meeting and the wider conflict between Ukraine and Russia encompass one of the most consequential of ongoing world affairs, and it could have significant future ramifications.
What is happening in Ukraine?
The Russo-Ukrainian War initially began in February of 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. At the time, Ukraine was experiencing intense political upheaval that resulted in the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych, their then pro-Russian president. Russia defended their action as one taken to support the region’s pro-Russia separatists; Western powers viewed the occupation as an effort to maintain Russia’s influence within the Ukrainian government.
A dramatic escalation to the simmering conflict came in February 2022 when Russian president Vladimir Putin breached a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine by launching a full-scale invasion.
Is the war in Ukraine a world conflict?
The Russo-Ukrainian War has far-reaching implications for various international power structures. As a result, dozens of countries are now involved.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) plays a primary role in the international involvement in the war. NATO was formed in 1949 following the end of World War II. It unified the United States, Canada and many Western European nations against the perceived threat of the Soviet Union- whose power was centralized in the Russian capital of Moscow- under an agreement that all member countries would unite to defend each other against attacks from outside parties. These tensions formed the basis of the Cold War, which persisted for nearly 45 years between 1947 and 1991. Although the Soviet Union dissolved in December of 1991, NATO has endured and continues to stand in opposition to Russia’s influence in the broader European region. Russia’s demonstrated objective to expand its territorial domain has driven many neighboring countries to seek NATO membership to protect themselves, a move that Russian leadership typically opposes as it does not want a NATO presence so close to its borders. Ukraine has sought to join NATO for nearly fifteen years, further complicating its dispute with Russia.
Broader geopolitical alliances have drawn additional world powers into the conflict, deepening global divisions. China, Iran and North Korea have aligned with Russia, with Western nations rallying behind Ukraine.
Finally, the presence of nuclear weapons has further heightened the stakes. Many parties on both sides of the conflict possess considerable nuclear arsenals, and Putin has repeatedly invoked Russia’s nuclear capabilities to intimidate Ukraine’s allies.
How has US strategy toward Ukraine changed?
There are distinct differences between the strategies adopted by Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump to address the conflict. Biden prioritized military, financial and diplomatic support for Ukraine’s defense and imposed severe economic sanctions against Russia. In contrast, Trump has shifted focus toward direct negotiations between the two primary combatants, reducing aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine to compel their cooperation in peace talks, and adopting a more conditional model of providing aid to Ukraine that prioritizes compensation in return for US support.
Both approaches have been controversial. Many took issue with the fiscal cost of the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine, which amounted to approximately $128 billion per the Council on Foreign Relations. Moreover, many Americans oppose US involvement in foreign wars. More recently, Trump’s strategy has drawn criticism across party lines in what some view as an unprecedented realignment of US foreign policy with Russian interests rather than those of long-standing Western allies. While peace seems to be a bipartisan priority, many are not comfortable with a resolution that results in the concession of Ukrainian territory to their Russian adversaries, nor one that further emboldens Putin’s expansionist efforts.
The meeting with Zelenskyy
On February 28, 2025, Trump and Vice President JD Vance hosted Zelenskyy for a televised meeting in the Oval Office.
Ahead of the meeting, Trump’s stated goals for the discussion included the negotiation of a thirty day ceasefire and the finalization of an agreement that would grant the US access to a portion of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. Control over these resources is an increasingly urgent priority among the predominant world powers as they prepare for the eventual decline of the planet’s finite supply of fossil fuels and the approaching transition into a future that will rely heavily on computer chips and lithium ion batteries. The agreement would accord the US an estimated $500 billion dollars in mineral resources, a nearly quadruple return on the $128 billion the US has contributed to Ukraine in aid.
However, the meeting did not play out that way. Around forty minutes into the discussion, a debate erupted between Trump, Vance and Zelenskyy in response to a question from a Polish reporter addressing concerns that Trump was too aligned with Putin. Trump answered, first suggesting that he was aligned with both sides, then saying that he wasn’t aligned with anyone before finally settling on an alignment with the United States and the world. Vance attempted to clarify the President’s response, suggesting that diplomacy was the basis of Trump’s approach and that it could potentially resolve the conflict. A combative tone settled over the conversation as Zelenskyy took issue with Vance’s answer, pointing out his 2019 diplomatic negotiation with Putin for a ceasefire, which Putin later violated. An argument ensued, which escalated to an abrupt termination of the meeting before the ceasefire and mineral deal could be agreed upon.
Why does this matter?
Although negotiations have continued despite the contentious Oval Office summit, it has sent shockwaves throughout the nation and the world. Generally supportive of Zelenskyy, Democratic lawmakers have unsurprisingly denounced the President’s conduct during the meeting. It has also created division among Republican officials, with some blaming Zelenskyy for the discussion’s failure while others expressed discomfort that the President appeared to side with Putin rather than US allies. Many of the US’s closest allies expressed their support for Zelenskyy, including Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. The most significant highlight, however, may be the growing sense that the relationship between the US and Russia is shifting, as signaled by an apparent pivot away from the alliances that have defined US diplomacy for nearly eighty years. Russia has historically played the role of a formidable US adversary, and Vladimir Putin is widely regarded as an authoritarian dictator amid extensive reporting on election fraud, rampant corruption, and human rights abuses under his administration. If the US strategy for the war in Ukraine changes the dynamic of these previously ironclad relationships, it would mark the beginning of an unprecedented geopolitical environment.
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